Long-term Indicators
Point & Figure Bullish Percentage
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Cumulative New Highs/Lows
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Cumulative Advancing/Declining Issues
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Cumulative Advancing/Declining Volume
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McClellan Summation
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Volatility
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SPX vs Volatility
The SPX vs Volatility indicator oscillate from one to many months within an underlying 4 year natural rhythm. The Baltic Dry index
of shipping rates clearly shows the 4 year cycle in 9994, 98, 2002 and 2006 and showed the weak 2000 peak that preceded the
large 2002 cycle low.
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Inverted Put/Call Ratio and Arms index study
We can look at these ratios in a number of ways, depending on the time frame and which one we use, but what is their long term effect?
I took the 200/400 day MA of the CBOE Total Put/Call ratio and Arms index, inverted them with the SPX over the last 10 years, and was surprised.
Short term the high Put/Call ratios and Arms index are contrary bullish sentiment indicators but on the long-term, quite the opposite is true.
These indicators correctly dropped as the SPX rallied into 2000, and also rose as expected during the downturn into the 2002 low.
But since then they have diverged signalling something is not quite right, and we are likely to see them all converge in the future.
Charts courtesy of vtoreport.com
Charts courtesy of vtoreport.com